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Expert advice, market reports, and tips from the Niagara Region real estate professionals.
Looking back at market performance over the years, we see that while in rapidly appreciating markets like 2017, 2020 and 2021 it is not unusual to see prices continue to climb into December and January, that is not typically the case. In both declining markets and in stable balanced markets, we see prices decline at year end, and generally on into January as well. That pattern was seen in 2022-2023 and that is precisely what we are seeing again in 2023-2024.
As we slide into the last few weeks of 2023 the market presents no real surprises. Prices in November are down on average about $12,362 or 1.8% from October. And that’s pretty consistent with what we’ve seen in past years for November, as the market runs out of steam approaching the Christmas season.
The sales figures are in for the month of October and they really don’t contain a lot of surprises. In fact, the average sale price across the Region is almost exactly what it was last month, $673,383 in October compared to $673,674 in September. A drop of $288 or 0.04%. Negligible!
Last month when the sales figures came in for August, we were surprised to see a significant downward trend in prices across almost every sector of the region. In some cases, the drop in average sale price was huge. Niagara Falls down 9.80% for example, Fort Erie down 8.56%, Welland down 8.44% and so on. In just one month. But upon further investigation we saw that the actual apples to apples price drop was only around one percent. We saw that when we consulted the H.P.I. which compares the selling prices of similar properties rather than sales averages of all properties sold.
The sales figures are in for August, and at first brush they are quite alarming. Substantial month over month drops in almost every municipality! St. Catharines down $30,277 or 4.53%, Niagara Falls down $67,057 or 9.80%, Fort Erie down $59,352 or 8.56%, Welland down $51,894 or 8.44%, Thorold down $38,944 or 6.12%. And the Niagara Region as a whole down $37,048 or 5.16%. And that’s in just one mont
The average price across the region continues to paint a blurry picture. Last month you may recall, the price was up from May by $30,562 or 4.33%. But May was actually down from April by $12,602 or 1.75%. Now the sales figures have come in for July and the average is a somewhat disappointing $717,398. That’s down from June by $19,093 or 2.59%, pretty much where it was at the end of April. Still up $61,061 or 9.30% from year end 2022 which is encouraging. But it’s finding it difficult to make solid headway. Gaining one month and then giving back some of those gains the next.
It’s always interesting to look at the numbers each month as they come in and see how they compare to the ‘feel’ of the marketplace. The numbers are now in for June and once again they seem to be giving a mixed picture. Let’s start with price.
The May sales figures are in and they paint a somewhat mixed picture. On the negative side, prices across the Region are down slightly from April. This reverses a three-month trend that saw figures rise around 10% from year end 2022. On the positive side, both number of listings and number of sales are up significantly from last month. And that’s a very good sign. First, let’s look at price trends.
It’s been a roller coaster ride when it comes to prices in Niagara ever since the onset of Covid. But in fact it goes back even further than that. Going back all the way to 2017 we have seen price gains in residential properties that were for a number of years previously just unheard of. In fact over the calendar year 2017 average prices grew by just over 25%.
Back last August the average sale price of residential property across the region came in at $695,328. And that price held pretty steady for three months: (August - $695,328, September - $695,205, October - $691,041). After peaking at $863,057 back in February 2022, the prices slid pretty steadily for the next 6 months up until August. It seemed that prices had bottomed out and were now pretty stable. But that was not the case. Beginning in November the average price began to soften again and this continued through January, which recorded an average all the way down at $627,561, a drop of almost 10%. But now, in February and March that downward trend has reversed, and gained back all those recent losses. March average came in at $694,280, a gain of $66,719 or 10.63%.
Last month as you may recall we saw a significant drop in average sale price across the region compared to those recorded in December, down – 4.38% or $28,776. At the same time, however, we sensed a feeling of optimism in the marketplace.