October 2025 - Market Overview - History Does Repeat Itself

Looking at the stats for September, there are no real surprises. Whether we are considering average residential sale prices across the Niagara Region or the actual number of units sold, we are following the pattern set this time last year. Prices are actually up a few dollars from both July and August, but still down $7,358 from September 2024. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. Looking at the last half of 2024, we see a slight slide in prices between July and December, $11,780 or 1.7%. During that period of time, prices fluctuated somewhat, with the lowest month, September, coming in at $676,074 and the highest months being the very next month, October, which registered an average sale price of $693,744. But I think it’s fair to say that there was not a lot of erosion in prices during the last half of 2024. What was surprising, however, was the hit that prices took between year-end and January 2025, which came in at $646,689. A drop of $31,585 or 4.66%. And that helped set the tone for 2025. We saw prices climb from that January low, but never quite caught up to last year. Now when we look at the third quarter of 2025, we see much the same pattern emerging. Average price has been pretty consistent for each of the three months July, August and September. But that consistency came about in spite of some pretty radical swings in month-to-month prices from one municipality to the next. I think as we speculate on to the end of the year, we are going to see much the same as we did previously. A slight softening of prices as we move into the colder months and see activity decrease. But I’m not expecting to see much of a decline. Will we see a significant drop in the first of 2026, like we did in January 2025? That’s tough to say. But to honestly address that question, we need to again look at past trends. Because history does and will repeat itself. In my opinion, this is the fourth significant recession we’ve seen in Ontario in the past 50-plus years. In 1970 and 1971, the market was hot. Prices were climbing rapidly. Then the government stepped in and shut it down by introducing a speculation tax. Well, 4 or 5 years late,r the market had recovered and was steamrolling ahead, but along with healthy price increases and robust activity, inflation in general was spiralling out of control. So, the government began to ratchet up interest rates right up to 21% and effectively shut down the economy and real estate right along with it (not unlike what has happened in this latest go-around). Well, it took another 4 or 5 years for the market to recover. But recover it did. And by 1988, 1989, things were on a roll. Escalating prices, multiple offers. Bidding wars. Right up until 1990, when we hit a wall. The market essentially shut down. And it was another 4 or 5 years before we started to recover. But recover we did. And we’ve enjoyed a pretty robust real estate market for over 25 years. Right up to April 2022, when dynamics changed. Of course, there have been a myriad of different factors involved from one real estate recession to the next. Spec tax, double-digit inflation, worldwide pandemic, record low interest rates and tariffs. But the pattern has remained the same. Build up to a hectic pace in prices and unit sales. A sudden shutdown in the market. A 4-to-5-year lull in activity. Then a period of recovery, at first gradual, and then speeding out of control. We are in our 4th year of recession. April 2026 will mark the start of year 5. So, barring something totally unforeseen, I expect our real estate recovery to begin next year. It’ll be gradual at first, just like a locomotive from a standing stop. But it will gain momentum. Both prices and unit sales will begin to increase until once again we are in a hectic sellers’ market. Don’t be surprised. But be prepared. And take advantage while the opportunities abound.